The traditional military parade on May 9 in Moscow, used by the Kremlin as a symbol of Russian might, was meant to be a pinnacle of propaganda this year, marking the 80th anniversary of Victory. Yet, instead of a triumph, it risks becoming a humiliation or even a threat for Vladimir Putin. Is the Kremlin afraid it cannot protect its own “holiday”?

Despite Russia’s aggression against Ukraine since 2022, Ukraine has repeatedly proven its ability to strike deep inside Russian territory with drones. Moscow has already faced attacks, and the failures of Russian air defenses are becoming increasingly apparent. Against this backdrop, Putin’s unexpected proposal to declare a three-day ceasefire starting May 8 looks less like a gesture of “respect for Victory,” as the Kremlin claims, and more like a sign of uncertainty. Is this about fear that the parade could become a target?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has issued a stark warning to foreign guests planning to attend the May 9 events in Moscow: “We cannot be responsible for what happens on Russian territory.” He also cautioned against potential provocations by the Kremlin—from arson to terrorist acts—that could be used to pin blame on Ukraine. This warning serves as a cold shower for those still considering a trip to Putin’s parade.

Meanwhile, Moscow’s response has been hysterical. Dmitry Medvedev, known for his belligerent rhetoric, threatened that in the event of a “real provocation,” Kyiv “won’t survive until May 10.” Yet such statements only highlight the nervousness of Russia’s leadership. In contrast, Ukraine and U.S. President Donald Trump are demanding not a symbolic three-day pause but a complete ceasefire for at least 30 days.

Despite the tension, leaders such as China’s Xi Jinping and Brazil’s Lula da Silva are reportedly planning to attend the parade. Their presence is meant to lend Putin political weight, but could it become a trap for them in a situation where even the Kremlin is unsure of its security?

Serbian President Vučić and Slovak Prime Minister Fico have suddenly “fallen ill” and are questioning their trip to Moscow for the parade.

The May 9 parade, intended to showcase Russia’s strength, risks exposing its vulnerabilities. Putin is caught in a trap of his own propaganda: canceling the parade would mean admitting weakness, while holding it risks humiliation. Is he ready for such a test?

Ukraine, without exaggeration, is holding its breath in tense anticipation. The unfolding events evoke scenes from the 2011 Hollywood blockbuster Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol. In the iconic film, Moscow became the stage for dramatic developments, and now it seems reality might outstrip fiction.

Could the Russian capital find itself at the epicenter of a new “protocol” that challenges its security? Ukraine, with bated breath, watches to see if the story captured on screen will prove prophetic—and whether Moscow is prepared for challenges once considered mere cinematic fantasy.